Will the Paris Agreement Be Met

The U.S. negotiated hard in Paris and applied strong transparency and accountability measures to ensure that China and India do their fair share. It included the ability for each country – including the United States – to set its own non-binding emission reduction targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions. The U.S. goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. This is achievable and will stimulate economic growth. These cuts will also give Americans cleaner air, a livable planet for our children, and, in many cases, cheaper electricity. In 1992, President George H.W. Bush joined 107 other heads of state at the Earth Summit in Rio, Brazil, to adopt a series of environmental agreements, including the UNFCCC framework, which is still in force today. The international treaty aims to prevent dangerous human interference in Earth`s climate systems in the long term.

The Pact does not set limits on greenhouse gas emissions for each country and does not include enforcement mechanisms, but rather provides a framework for international negotiations on future agreements or protocols to set binding emission targets. Participating countries meet annually for a Conference of the Parties (COP) to assess their progress and continue discussions on how best to tackle climate change. Yes, there is a broad consensus in the scientific community, although some deny that climate change is a problem, including politicians in the United States. When negotiating teams come together for international climate negotiations, there is “less skepticism about science and more disagreement about how to set priorities,” says David Victor, a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego. The basic science is as follows: under U.S. law, the United States Participation in an international agreement can be terminated by a president acting on executive authority or by an act of Congress, regardless of how the United States has acceded to the agreement. The Paris Agreement stipulates that a Party may not withdraw from the Agreement within the first three years of its entry into force. Current policies would lead to an increase of nearly 3°C by 2100, according to a tracker by German nonprofits Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. If governments meet their previous commitments under the Paris Agreement, it will still result in an increase of 2.7°C. Net-zero emissions come from the Paris Agreement, although the target has not been explicitly articulated in the text of the treaty. World leaders set the 2°C limit and the 1.5°C target limit in Paris, based on advice from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world`s leading climate body, which has found over the years that 2°C is the safe threshold beyond which the devastation of climate collapse would likely become catastrophic and irreversible.

Even at 1.5°C, many low-lying areas could be flooded by sea level rise and storm surges. The agreement contains commitments from all countries to reduce their emissions and work together to adapt to the effects of climate change and calls on countries to strengthen their commitments over time. The agreement provides an opportunity for developed countries to assist developing countries in their mitigation and adaptation efforts, while providing a framework for transparent monitoring and reporting on countries` climate goals. Developed countries have committed themselves under the UNFCCC to support mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing countries. Under the Copenhagen and Cancún Accords, developed countries committed to mobilize $100 billion a year in public and private financing for developing countries by 2020. Adopted in 1992, the UNFCCC is a treaty between governments that forms the basis of global climate efforts. The convention, which enjoys near-universal adherence, has been ratified by the United States with the approval of the Council and the Senate. The convention set a long-term goal (avoiding “dangerous human intervention in the climate system”), established principles to guide global efforts, and committed all countries to “mitigate” climate change by reducing or avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement sets out how countries will implement their commitments under the UNFCCC after 2020. The consequences will be much worse when the 2°C threshold is reached, scientists say.

“We`re heading for disaster if we can`t control our warming and we have to do it very quickly,” says Alice C. Hill, CFR`s principal investigator for energy and the environment. A big problem that still needs to be solved before Cop26 is financing. It was crucial to include in the Paris Agreement developing countries that had suffered the full brunt of a problem that they had caused little. The key to this, Fabius said, was the commitment of financial support The French government had to reassure the poorest countries during the talks that $100 billion a year in financial support would come to poor countries to reduce their emissions and manage the effects of the climate crisis. “Money, money, money,” Fabius stressed, was at the center of the discussions. “If you don`t have that $100 billion, the talks will fail.” However, it is not clear whether the political will exists. For example, there are signs that many countries will not use the emission reductions caused by the pandemic as an opportunity to boost their climate ambitions. The world`s richest countries, the G-20, have allocated $12 trillion to deal with the economic disruption caused by COVID-19, but only a quarter of donors are funding efforts to reduce carbon emissions, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme. “We`ve never had $10 trillion to $20 trillion spent over the next 24 months to revive the global economy,” Andrew Steer, president of the World Resources Institute, said at a news conference this week.

“If we invest this in yesterday`s economy, we are essentially committing a mortal sin for our grandchildren.” While it`s easy to officially rejoin the deal, the biggest challenge for a Biden administration would be to come up with a new U.S. NDC widely seen as ambitious and credible. Many countries have indicated in their INDCs that they intend to use some form of international emissions trading to implement their contributions. To ensure the environmental integrity of these transactions, the agreement requires the parties to follow accounting practices that avoid double counting of “internationally transferred mitigation results.” In addition, the agreement introduces a new mechanism that contributes to containment and support for sustainable development and could generate or certify tradable emission units, depending on its design. However, analysis of the 184 commitments for 2030 revealed that nearly 75% were insufficient. In fact, the world`s first and fourth largest emitters, China and India, will have higher emissions in 2030. The United States is the second largest and its promise is too weak. It`s also doubtful, given the Trump administration`s withdrawal from the deal. The authors of the agreement have built a timetable for withdrawal, which President Trump must follow – and prevent it from irreparably harming our climate. The crucial question, however, is whether countries will achieve these long-term goals.

Making promises for 2050 is one thing, but now big policy changes are needed to put economies on a low-carbon basis. “None of these [net-zero] goals will matter without very aggressive action in this decade of the 2020s,” Stern said. “I think there is a growing, but not yet broad, understanding of this reality.” The Kyoto Protocol, a landmark environmental treaty adopted at COP3 in Japan in 1997, is the first time that countries have agreed on country-specific emission reduction targets that are legally mandated. The protocol, which only entered into force in 2005, set binding emission reduction targets only for developed countries, based on the assumption that they were responsible for most of the Earth`s high greenhouse gas emissions. The United States first signed the agreement, but never ratified it; President George W. Bush argued that the deal would hurt the U.S. economy because it would not include developing countries such as China and India. Without the participation of these three countries, the effectiveness of the treaty proved limited, as its objectives covered only a small fraction of total global emissions.

If Trump tries to falsely claim that the Paris Agreement is actually a treaty that must be submitted to the Senate for deliberation and approval, he risks limiting his ability – and that of all future presidents – to conclude international agreements in the future and raising serious doubts about the reliability of the United States.